CFHC Talkback For News Story #76:
Newest Talkback: 09:19 PM 08-31 EDT

August
08:59 AM EDT - 30 August 2000

I think we will not see any more named systems this month.

August was a strange montth for storms, and memorable for these reasons:

1. Alberto...
This one just hung around forever going to major hurricane status back to tropical storm and up again, did a loop and went out. It was a very long lived storm and the most interesting thing this month.

2. Beryl...
This was pretty much doomed from the start, its center was placed too far east of where it actually was, and therefore went into the Mexican coast way before any damage could have been done. Hurricane watches/warnings were put up as a precaution, but were never really needed.

3. Chris
Chris was the storm that more than a few jumped the gun on big time. Saying that it would affect Florida way way to early. When in fact, it died before even reaching the Caribbean due to shear. I never thought it would make it, but the next one gets the oddball of the decade award...

4. Debby
This one threw everyone for a loop, even those who said it would go into the gulf were wrong, all of us were wrong. It had the potential to me a mess for Florida, and winded up just going kaput north of Hispaniola never to recover. Head scratching, indeed, but definitely a small miracle that it did this.

I don't see anything happening this week as far as named storms go. I'm pretty much willing to write off the storm off the east coast, and if the one in the east Atlantic develops into a named storm, it won't be in August. So we go out of August almost as quietly as we went into it.

We've got a new webcam: Barb & Wendy in Winter Springs have set one up.

Also Joseph Johnston in Mobile has redone his page and added a very nice collection of photos on Mobile, Alabama's hurricane history.

JimF has added some impressive lightning photos and Irene photos to his webcam page.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)


Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #34 (of 34 total)
On to your method! (#1)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 10:01AM 30-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Aha, brothers C-

I see a method in your madness! You say no system will develop anytime soon, and then one develops!

Seriously, looks like we have a td in the EastLant, altho a bit skinny on convection at this time, good circulation and banding coming along, no CDO yet. Probably upgraded at 11, or, if convestion is use as the determining criteria,a s it has a few times this season, 5pm.

Off the east coast, who knows, what a mess!

And finally, something is happening in the Central Gulf. Anyone, thoughts?

IHS,

Bill
Re: August (#2)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 10:05AM 30-Aug-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Hate to disagree, but I think we will see Ernesto before the clock strikes 12 EDT tomorrow. CHeers!
Bill's got us figured out. (#3)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 10:10AM 30-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

I didn't say a TD wouldn't form. :)

Way things have been going this season, Ernesto could be a Hurricane at 11AM tomorrow. I'll stick with what we said for now, though.

gulf (#4)
Posted by: Rick Shade Location: Mobile, Al
Posted On 10:57AM 30-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNQRNRSXNRTT*)

It was 105 degrees in Mobile yesterday...hottest ever recorded for us....so here's what I think...I HOPE some sort of tropical system develops to remove all this heat. I wonder what the SST's in the gulf are now? If man could tap that energy..wow...

The developing thunderstorms in the gulf from that funny low pressure system off of Florida may spin its own circulation today. With the heat being what it is...plenty of energy, and I don't think there are any upper levels to blow the roof off. So...I think this area has a good chance...anyone else?
Atlantic (#5)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:00AM 30-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNUV*)

I am going out on a limb here (I always do) but I have to agree with Steve and Bill in saying there is already a TD out there...NHC is saying that there is a 1009mb low centered at 11N/29W and you can clearly see it on sat and ir imagery this morning. Wouldn't be surprised at all if we see TD#8 at the same times mentioned above (depending on how the NHC decides to play their hand with this one, maybe wanting to see if it holds together for the next 8 hours or so), and Ernesto by 11:00pm or earlier tomorrow night. That's just my own opinion, however, it could be way way off...(call it the "Debby Lesson") LOL...Colleen
TD#8?? (#6)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 11:18AM 30-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQTUNWQ*)

Hello All,
Well I agree there is a Tropical Depression or very close to being one well out in the atlantic. I feel the only reason there holding back on making it a TD is thunderstorms have decreased in the past few hours. Though I think its going to happen over the next 6-12 hours its hard to understand the NHC's reasoning on why name a swirl off of Florida a TD and not this one. I feel its due to where it developes as much as anything else. This one is very far away where the TD off the Florida east coast was close too shore but realy who knows?
11:30 Advisory (#7)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 12:05PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Wave in the East Atlantic is slowly organizing, but should continue despite the subject advisory on this system. Strange how they state at 5:30 "conditions are favorable for development" and when they don't get rapid development, They say 6 hours later "upper level winds have become less favorable for development" . Don't they monitor and forecast the upper level winds? Anyhow, I see slow development of this system during the next 24 hours, but shear continues off the north coast of south america to NE of the Windwards and Leewards. If this doesn't abate during te next 72 hours, Ernesto (should he be born) will get torn up. If winds relax he will continue WNW beyond 72 hours. See that Anti cyclone over the Bahamas and SE of there? Huge swirl with it. Interesting to see if that plays into future weather. cheers!
Models (#8)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 12:28PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNVX*)

Well, as well as I can read models (and I can't really read them well) the only one who even initially recognizes this system is AVN..which puts it at TS strength in 72 hours with a 1004mb low (at least from I what I can see)..UKMET and NOGAPS don't even have it initialized yet, so I can't believe what they see. As far as wind shear goes, I can't even begin to read the models on those, because Idon't know how to read them...but the latest sat loop and IR images really doesn't show much of a change, except it does not look as well organized as it did earlier. Could be going through some shear right now, like Steve said, but from what I have read, that shear is supposed to relax in about 2 days or so....anyone else? This season has been so strange, who knows what will happen.
We are all on the same wavelength (#9)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 12:37PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Please pardon the pun above, don't get depressed about it, or storm off in a whirl>

Sorry, that just happened!Serendipity?!:)

Steve literally took the words out of my mouth about the NHC and their flip flops...one can laugh or cry, I guess.

Anyone notice the little swirl off St. Augustine that is gaining momentum? Check out the GOES close-up. Now, there have been/are so many swirls, I am not forcasting anything fromt hat system or the mess!I haven't looked at the S. Aug CMAN, might be interesting!

I did notice very interestingly that there was a three hour lull at the Fryinb Pan Shoals this morning and the winds switched 180 degrees from the beginning to the end of the lull, and were much stronger before and after. What is that system? I'd say hybrid does best describe it.

Little miniswirls are all over the place within the larger envelope. It'll be interesting to see if the Gulf convection develops there, or moves into the ATL and something materializes there.

RE: "TD 8"..yes, I agree, it is (a td), and it doesn't look much different from this morning..we could still have a td by the end of the day.

And finally---can anyone say EMILY? (from last yr)...look east of the islands at, I think it was about 12 N(I forget) 50W (fer sure)..there is a low developing, a circulation, looks much more together than Emily ever did, and in about the same place. Think something might be happening there? Course there is a lot of shear, but, small systems can spin up (and down) just like Emily did, on the drop of a hat, or should I say isohyet?

It's getting busier here folks, if the upper troposphere will heat up (it is) and shear will relax (could), things will pop. There is so much going on right now, I think God is just protecting us froma plethora of tropical cyclones!
Debbie was more than a MINOR miracle by the way..I think that was the power of prayer definitley at work! Thank God!

IHS,

Bill
Funny you Should Say that Bill (#10)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 01:03PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

When Debby was getting organized in the Atlantic my Brother-in-Law asked me what the chances were of being affected by the storm (he lives in Stuart) and I said "nothing but devine intervention would keep us from seeing this storm affect florida, start praying". Literally, that's what I said to him. Yes, I did notice that little bit of convection east of the islands and something could form out of that also. I'll have to look at St. Augustine. The last (16:15) loop showed our "TD" pulling together a little better. I think it will be on the upswing from now through at least 72 hours. Cheers!
prospects (#11)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 01:08PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

everyone has pretty much covered the bases when it comes to spotting all the little potent spots out there.. but im hesitant to think any of them have more than a slim chance. the upper air patterns for the atlantic on vapor look to me rather like the suds in a washing machine. there are breaks and relative calm spots in the mid latitudes.. but what seems to be tearing the heart out of the hurricane season is that persistent jet of upper shear that crosses the caribbean and low latitude atlantic.. it's keeping the cape verde area rather mellow. with the weak la nina still hanging on.. why all the shear, i wonder? well, i dont expect any floyd-like storms this year (knock on wood), at least. if anything big comes at the u.s. this season, id expect it to originate in the w. carib, gulf, maybe just off the east coast. keep eyeballing this broad low off the s.e., watch the edges and secondary vorticies.. i think it has the best chance of starting something, still. as for the eastern atlantic, i think that shear is going to strangle anything that fires off anytime soon.
heart of the hurricane season, and things are a lot quieter than they could be. didnt expect this.
have a good one everybody.
Uh oh! hey NHC, look off Myrtle Beach...it's not going west... (#12)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 01:32PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

And, it is getting better organized, there is solid convection all around the central 'clear spot".....


the odd season continues....

IHS,

Bill
St. Augustine rotation (#13)
Posted by: Gary Location: Jacksonville
Posted On 01:40PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQURNVUNR*)

Not only is that rotation off of nc not moving, but Bill was right about the swirl off St Augustine, the boey is reporting wind around 14 to 18 mph, but we are getting winds close to 30 on shore.
Developing 33.9N 77.7W (#14)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 01:57PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNXW*)


TPNT KGWC 301727

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST OF FLORIDA

B. 30/1632Z (97)

C. 33.9N/5

D. 77.7W/1

E. THREE/GOES8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0 24HRS -30/1632Z-

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI



19A/ PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN SHEARED 52NM FROM LLCC.

FINAL T BASED ON DT, PT SUPPORTS. MET YIELDS 1.5.


Developing 33.9N 77.7W (#15)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 01:58PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNXW*)


TPNT KGWC 301727

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST OF FLORIDA

B. 30/1632Z (97)

C. 33.9N/5

D. 77.7W/1

E. THREE/GOES8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0 24HRS -30/1632Z-

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI



19A/ PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN SHEARED 52NM FROM LLCC.

FINAL T BASED ON DT, PT SUPPORTS. MET YIELDS 1.5.


To Gary (#16)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:19PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQYV*)

Gary...are the T's they are referring to in this statement to Dvoreks? and exactly what does this mean? Sorry, I am not an expert, but I know that a 2 on a Dvorak scale is something to look at...thanks for your help!!!! Colleen

p.s. anyone else noticee you cannot access the loops from NHC site?
Dvorak (#17)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 02:26PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNXW*)

Colleen, yes'that's what this is. T2.0=30Knots and the D=Developing Trend over last 24hrs
Depression Forming in Atlantic (#18)
Posted by: Joe
Posted On 03:04PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNSNQXRNRY*)

Looks like there could be a Depression in the
Eastern Atlantic just west of the Cape Verde islands.I think they will upgrade this by Tomorrow
or Thursday.Looks like it has a good rotation with
it.Also off Carolinas and Gulf nothing there looks
to be forming.

Joe
Gary's posts, Colleen's question (#19)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 03:18PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Well, if it is T 2.0, it should be classified as depression, at least a subtrop depression. Plus, I believe the 1.0 means it is expected (or has?)to improve by 1.0 T number over the next 24hrs, which would put it at TS strength.

Interesting to say the least!

IHS,

BIll
SC Thing (#20)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 03:20PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNTV*)

It did look like it was moving sw, but then turned west again...however, how can the T numbers be going up if it's already over land? I don't understand that...if it's a developing trend, then it should be over water, right? Or am I just not understanding all of this correctly? The lowest pressure I could find out there was 1009mb..near Frying Pan Shoals. Sheesh..somebody figure this out..!!! Has there been anymore T Dvorak reports? Thanks...Colleen
Hornswoggled! (#21)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 03:25PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

I'll be! yes, Colleen, is just ont he coast, looks like the center is elongated a bit, so it is not completely inland. Also, the convection had subsided in the area near the center.

Why the t #s..well, at the time of analysis, it was over water.

What a season!

IHS,

Bill
One depression, maybe two in the EastLant (#22)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 03:44PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

The system that TPC said may become a td earlier today, and then said would not, looks like it is. The latest VIS and IR I've seen (2pm) are really wrapping up. If TPC is playing it straight, it'll be a td at 5.

Also, the "Emily' clone at 12.5/50.5 also could be a td, altho it is hard tpo tell, it is so small. Lots of convection and a cdo tho.

Mini-low continues to swirl off NE Fl coast, looks like it is tightening.

This must be the year for mini-swirls!

IHS,

Bill
I Think I Have Gotten Down This Season (#23)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:02PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNQXW*)

Ok, I think I have got it now, as far as this season goes: 1)what you THINK is a depression, isn't, just because it should be. 2) What you see isn't real, it's made up by Martians playing with our satellites. 3) If they say it's moving west, look east; if they say it's moving north, look south 4) If it looks better organized, it's really not (refer to #2 above). 5) This isn't really Hurricane season, it's right around the Holidays. You should be shopping for wrapping paper, not water.

Does that cover it? Sorry, just letting out some humor that has been building all season!!! Please don't be mad! Colleen
I think you are right (#24)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 04:08PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNS*)

Gee....That's probably the best weather analysis I've heard in the past two weeks..

My bet is on the disturbance in the far east Atlantic... every thing else... "forget about it"
Frank (#25)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:15PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNQXW*)

Thanks...and I agree about the East Atlantic system being our best bet. Refer to #3 in my previous post!
Colleen for head of NHC (#26)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:05PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Sounds good to me, yo do have the season down right...or is that wrong?

IHS,

barometric bill
Low in east Atlantic (#27)
Posted by: Alex
Posted On 05:21PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRQPNRQTNS*)

Although the low in the east Atlantic looks healthy, I doubt developement before tommorrow. The reason is a bit of a lack in convection and the NHC being conservative. As for the convection in the gulf I doubt developement unless it really persists. Please voice your thoughts.
Comments (#28)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:28PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

I'm surprised, altho according to Colleen's rules I should not be, that NHC did not upgrade the system in the EastLant. They probably won't until at least 5am tomorrow (if it holds together) unless they get ship reports. They are running models on it by the way.

I see they also have finally noticed the wave east of the islands (that their TPC discussions don't even mention).

Re: Gulf, yes, it will have to hold together for at least 24 hrs and develop a circulation.

Anything could happen this year tho!IHS,

Bill
Gulf blob (#29)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 06:36PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQUQ*)

An observation checking the central and northern gulf buoys this afternoon indicate that the pressures are falling, with a low bp reading of 1009.6 mb at bouy 42041, other bouys are in the 1010 and 1011 range with pressure tendencies falling in the -1.3 to -2.0 range.... Never count out the GOM with its late summer bathtub temps in the mid to upper 80s....
GOM (#30)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 06:45PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

There are subtle signs that something may be starting to happen with the mass of Cbs in the mid-Gulf.

1. Winds in the southeast gulf from the west and wnw, winds in the central north recently shifting to E and ENE, also very gusty (may be due to TStorm outflow); also nnw winds in west Gulf. There have been gusts to 39kts after several hours of gusty winds at the central Gulf buoy; winds shifted and lowered.

2. Pressure falls...altho pressure is somewhat low throughout the whole region, and the falls may be diurnal variations

3. Some slight evidence of a bit of cyclonic turning starting in the S Gulf

Keep yor eyes peeled!

IHS,

Bill
Data Bouys (#31)
Posted by: Ken Jones Location: Jacksonville, FL
Posted On 10:04PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNRPR*)

Can someone please email me the url for the data buoys website. I have lost it. Thanks.
quick tropical update,,, (#32)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 10:29PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQUNQUWNQSS*)

Great calls on alot of peoples forcasts..
The atlantic is looking very interesting,,but not all threatening. The system in the eastern atlantic has a well defined circulation,,,but the winds are only near20-25mph,,,not enough for classification....develpoment should continue though the upper level winds are moderate for the region. A ridge near the system should continue to the west,,but will remain kinda weak in nature.
The system near the carribean has no circulation but could slowly develop over the next 3 days.
The gulf system is under a upper level high,,,it does have favorible conditions with a warm water base to grow on,,but near is no circulation that we can notice at this time,,,,models show no development,,,,finally the system in near the carolinas is subtropical,,,,and is associated with a upper level low.
Best area to develop is the gulf,,but best chance for a TD is the central atlantic,which is currently 4 days from the NE islands of the carribean;
GOM (#33)
Posted by: Rick Shade Location: Mobile, Al
Posted On 08:45AM 31-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNQRNRSXNSQ*)

Got a wierd feeling about the activity out in the Gulf. Somehow...I think something is gonna develop. Only thing to stop things is the upper level winds, and they are perfect....a nice high pressure ridge aloft. If it refires with heavy convection today...which I believe it will in a big way...then it will hold tonight and not dissipate...and we will have a stationary blob of low level disturbance that should begin to organize. It even appears to be doing so this morning...anyone else feel this way...or am I just hoping for a little excitement?
good for laughs (#34)
Posted by: tommy Location: cocoa beach,florida
Posted On 09:19PM 31-Aug-2000 with id (VSNRUTNQPQNVS*)

it is pretty comical reading all of you guys amateur predictions.when are you going to realize that the NHC knows a lot more about these things than you do and if they aren't calling for development what makes you think that you have the knowledge or skill to say something is going to develop.you guys are dreaming but i tell you what if you wish hard enough you might just get what you want-a massive storm that you can track right into the state of florida as it destroys everything in sight.that seems to be what you wanted with debby and the season still has plenty of time left.please get a grip and use your heads just a little!
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