CFHC Talkback For News Story #92:
Newest Talkback: 11:14 AM 09-14 EDT

Florence and West Caribbean
11:42 AM EDT - 13 September 2000

Today not much has changed. Florence is still a minimal hurricane spinning of the coast, and still is expected to move away from us eventually.

Hurricane Hunter aircraft failed to find a Low Level Circulation Center in the West Caribbean, but found a fairly impressive Mid-Level one. I expect it still to form within the next day or two. If it forms, things become interesting for the Gulf. Including Florida. However, until something really does develop, speculation of that sort is counter productive. Still, this system should be watched closely.

The system in the Central Atlantic still has a few days yet to develop or not.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)


Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

Show All Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #64 (of 64 total)
latest system.... (#1)
Posted by: Rick Shade Location: Mobile, Al
Posted On 12:03PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQRNQUNST*)

This site is still the best Hurricane site on the web...not however...when I add my novice two cents worth...but I will anyhow.. The disturbance in the Caribbean is firing up, to be expected...the next 10 hours will tell the tale, I think.....and the track still looks like it's heading northwest. Anyone have any long range models on this of late? Are the upper level winds still favorable? And are the SST's still warm
Oh they are (#2)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 12:06PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQSVNQQ*)

water is real warm 29 C and upper winds are to become even more favrobale and the gfdl has making landfall south of tampa with 105-110 mph winds
Florence weakening? (#3)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 12:20PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

This is the latest recon:A. 13/1527Z
B. 30 DEG 36 MIN N
73 DEG 40 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1337 M
D. 55 KT
E. 248 DEG 34 NM
F. 338 DEG 49 KT
G. 250 DEG 14 NM
H. EXTRAP 990 MB
I. 19 C/ 1509 M
J. 19 C/ 1522 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C15
N. 1234/8
O. .1/2 NM
P. AF967 0410A FLORENCE OB 09
MAX FL WIND 49 KT W QUAD 1523Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 850MB.

If I read correctly, max winds are down to 55 mph? Looks like it's time to turn our full attention to the Carribean.


Western carib re:rick (#4)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 12:27PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

The western Caribbean low is spinning up now. Deep convection on IR Color sat pix show deep reds beginning to rotate around the center...we will have Gordon soon. Not convinced of the GFDL track. Long wave may not be as strong as previously thought, bur can't write off the model. Everyone in the gulf needs to watch this, especially if it doesn't hit the Yucatan. No panicking yet, but I believe this has potential for serious development. Rick, if you're in Mobile, watch this too. SSTs are high, and upper-level winds look favorable ATTM, as Robert mentioned. When the recon gets there we'll get a fix on position and strength, then a better clue and model run with the new data to figure where he might be headed. As always, be prepared. Cheers!!
Wave (#5)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 12:42PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNQT*)

The wave in the West Caribbean is looking pretty good right now on the latest vis sat loop. Certainly can see the mid level circulation, not sure about LLC... Mike said two days ago that this thing could end up between Baton Rouge and the Fla Panhandle on the Northern Gulf Coast.... good early call and still a possiblility. BTW, NHC running test models on the system east of Islands at 17.0 and 53.0
Clyde (#6)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 12:44PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQSVNQQ*)

55 knts is around 65mph i belive 1 knt = 1.15 or 1.2 mph something around there anyways just wanted to clear things up. It does look as though florence is weakening
Caribbean (#7)
Posted by: LNoel
Posted On 12:59PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNRQ*)

The Carib looks good, me being in Penscola gets me concerned with the boiling water temps!!!!
concerned (#8)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 01:06PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNS*)

I think everyone from the Louisiana to Tampa should be concerned about this one... timing of it and the alleged approaching cold front will certainly have a major influence on this thing and where it goes...stay tuned
Florence weakening? (#9)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 01:16PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

It looks like the large area of convection that is blowing up SE of Florence may be messing up her inflow, hence strangling the storm.

RE; western Carib, it looks to me that is has more of a wnw to west motion...even tho NHC says NW. Time will tell. Does look like a surface circulation is forming near 19N, 84.5 W

System east of the Islands being sheared, but may have a chance. Of interest too is a swirl near 10 N ont eh S end of this system.

New system moving off Africa has promise.

IHS,

Bill
GORDEN? (#10)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 02:08PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQTUNTT*)

Here we have what I believe is already a depression in the northwest carribean. The only thing we are waiting for is confermation of a LLC. I also believe it maybe already a Tropical Storm but until the recon flight goes in I'm not certain. The midlevel circulation is definitly there and thunderstorms are increasing around this center. LLC is improving but is it wrapped arond yet is the big question.. No matter all people around the Gulf of Mexico need to pay close attention now. If this strong cold front moves as far south as projected by saturday Florida to New Orleans is prime for a Hurricane late this week into early this weekend. But lets wait and see what developes today.
Agree (#11)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 02:11PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNQR*)

Mark I agree.... It also looks like it is still continuing on a basically northwest route.
West (#12)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 02:23PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Latest TPC discussion says west at 10 kts at this time.

Canadian and GFDL models take it to Fl, others west.

KMLB Discussion notes that if Canadian/GFDL bear out "wet and stormy end to the weekend".

IHS,

Bill
Visible & IR Imagery (#13)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:33PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNRT*)

NHC states that a 1008mb low is now centered near 18N/84W...if you look very closely (visible imagery loops have not been updated, but IR loops show it) you can definitely see the llcc. It appears to me that it is moving n/nw, but not west;however, that is only my eyes telling me that. I think the convection is moving westward, but that would be expected if it is moving in this direction (N/NW)...btw, the Canadian model mentioned by KMLB is one of the best and the only one who turned Floyd last year before it hit the Florida coast.
Gordon? (#14)
Posted by: Joe Location: Tampa
Posted On 03:00PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNSNQXRNYY*)

Looks like we will have a named storm in a Day thats what I think.I also think this could be heading for Florida by Friday into the weekend.Because of the strong front.It already looks like its a depression if not stronger.I guess we will see later this afternoon!!!
JOE.

Will it miss the Yucatan P? (#15)
Posted by: David Location: Brevard/PSJ
Posted On 03:04PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

Watching the movement it looks like it is moving inbetween the Yucatan and the W end of Cuba. Does this mean that Fl will have a better chance of some of the wet stuff? Or is everyone really waiting to see what happens with the cold front.


Colleen where at NHC are you finding the projected models?

Thanks
W. Carib Disturbance (#16)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 03:12PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUUNQPT*)

As usual, I'm going to be more conservative about the Carib. low than most. I've looked at the most recent sat pics in different channels, as well as some surface observations--and I'm not terribly impressed. Banding in this system is weak, and I see little or no evidence of low-level banding.
Go to the NRL site, look at the 85 Hz and 37 Hz imagery (both good channels for seeing the finer structure in TCs), and you'll see what I mean. The convection is strong, but ragged. Granted, the disturbance has good cyclonic curvature, but this doesn't mean its a "significant" TC, of course. Interestingly enough, though the disturbance is getting very near Cozumel, wind conditions there are calm. This might mean that any LLCC is simply very small; in any case, hopefully this will be resolved when the Hurricane Hunters get there. It's a shame that the Cancun radar is out...
Brief addendum... (#17)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 03:14PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUUNQPT*)

For the record, though, upper-level conditions are indeed very favorable, as are the SSTs. Whatever this thing does, it'd be well off to do it before it reaches the Yucatan, an event that will surely put the brakes on its development, at least temporarily.


NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION TROPICAL DESK (#18)
Posted by: Gary (http://†ÿ€©@hèx) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 03:16PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNYU*)

THE WRN CARIBBEAN RIDGE IS PROVIDING THE OUTFLOW FOR AN AREA OF

DISTURBED WEATHER. THE 00 UTC ETA WAS THE ONLY ONE THAT WAS

RESOLVING A CLOSED CIRCULATION IN THE AREA..BUT ON THE 12 UTC RUN IT

ABANDONED THE IDEA..AND LIKE THE GLOBAL MDLS IT NOW RESOLVES AN

OPEN TROUGH ON THE LOW LVL EASTERLIES. THIS AXIS WILL MOVE ALONG 86W

BY 24 HRS..88W BY 36 HRS..89W/90 BY 48 HRS..91W BY 60 HRS AND 91W/92W BY 72

HRS. EXPECT A WEAK LOW ALONG THE NRN FRINGES OF THIS AXIS TO

APPROACH QUINTANA ROO/COZUMEL BY 30-36 HRS..TO THEN TRACK WNW N OF

YUCATAN BY 54 HRS. THE MDLS THEN FCST SOME INTENSIFICATION OF THIS

AXIS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CAYMAN

ISLES WILL DECREASE THROUGH 24-36 HRS..WITH ACCUMULATION OF 20-35

MM/DAY..WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS TO AFFECTS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD/WRN-

CNTRL CUBA BY 42-60 HRS. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL AFFECT BELIZE

WITH ACCUMULATION OF 05-15MM..AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO

AFFECT QUINTANA ROO-COZUMEL BY 36-42 HRS..WITH RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 40-

60MM.




Amazing (#19)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 03:27PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

With such favorable conditions, I just don't understand why this system hasn't exploded by now....I guess I just don't understand all the dynamics involved. I agree JJ, this doesn't look nearly as impressive as it did coming out of the gate this morning, but do believe it wil develop. When/where I don't know, but we'll watch and see. Cheers!
west. Carribean (#20)
Posted by: Doug Spangler
Posted On 03:43PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQTTNQNTQ*)

The gfdl model develops the low into a class II and moves it across wc Fla, so. Sarasota County on Saturday morning...latest visible seems to show surface low...other models develop low and send it west at 72 hours...
Cycling (#21)
Posted by: Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/~jfaul) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 03:47PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNSQNXRNQQY*)

One thing to remember about developing systems and even well developed systems is the fact they go through many phases. This afternoon it might not look as organized..in fact, it could be reorganizing and thus not looking as good. If the center is moving around it isn'tgoing to look as pretty. If this sytem is going to develop and grow there will be many more phases like the last 24 hours. Conditions appear to be excellant..even the NHC uses "very favorable" in their description. You must consider at bare minimum a 12 hour period when judging the overall healthiness of a system. Maybe it runs into land and dies..maybe it comes into your backyard. Who knows but dont get too caught up in every single sat picture.

David (#22)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 03:56PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQXQ*)

I am getting the information from the FSU school of meteorology. I will try and put the link up, but Gary did it the best for me (CALLING GARY)!!

I don't know if they have run a new GFDL model as of yet, though. I have not seen one since the one I posted this morning.

Colleen
Try This (#23)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:01PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQXQ*)

Don't know if it will work or not, never did it before:

http://www.met.fsu.edu

hope that helps!!!
Models (#24)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 04:04PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNYU*)

If I read the NCEP Outlook right NO Global model forms a Tropical system only an open Trough until later, in the gulf
Colleen (#25)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 04:06PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNYU*)

http://www.met.fsu.edu/Data/archive/weather/HURR/
Just a Note (#26)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 04:07PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

I messed around with the source code to cfhcnews today and added automated link highlighting. So if someone drops a link in a comment, it actually shows as a link that you can click on.

Hopefully it won't cause too many problems.
Thanks Gary!!! (#27)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:09PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQXQ*)

Thanks, Gary....helpful as always!!!

here is what Key West is saying about the system in the Caribbean:
EXPECTED TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF DISTURBANCE IN CARIBBEAN WILL AGAIN DRIVE THE FORECAST. SHORT RANGE MODELS MOVE IT ACROSS THE YUCATAN TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHILE HPC GUIDANCE MOVES IT THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF. FORECAST WILL SHOW A GENERAL INCREASED RAIN CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD CONSISTENT WITH FURTHER
EAST FORECAST OF HPC.

COASTAL FORECAST WILL HAVE INCREASING WINDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
MODELS...ALLOWING FOR OFFICIAL "TRACK" FORECAST...BUT REMAINING
BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

Am I correct in assuming that his HPC is the Canadian model that they are all talking about?


lastest sat loop (#28)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 04:15PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNQR*)

Looking at the latest sat loop from NRL the system still appears to be moving in a general northwest motion, somewhere between WNW and NW... There is also a pretty good feederband of thunderstorms developing to the northeast side of the center of rotation. I would be very suprised if they do not have minimum TS winds in this section of thunderstorm activity at this time.

http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/tc_home
Colleen (#29)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 04:32PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNYU*)

I think they are referring to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
GORDON???????? (#30)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 04:33PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRXNQWXNQR*)

THE LATEST SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW STRONG CONVECTION IN NORTHERN QUADRANTS AND SIGNS OF BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS, WHICH INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZATION, EVEN THOUGH IT FAILED TO LOOK THAT WAY ALL DAY. THIS MAY BE TEMPORARY, THOUGH IT IS MOVING IN THE DIRECTION THAT THE MODELS HAVE PREDITICTED IT TO GO. FURTHER MORE, THE MODELS ALL SEASON HAVE HAD LITTLE CREDIBILITY IN THE PREDICITION OF ANY STORM WITHIN A 12 HOUR WINDOW. HENCE, I WOULD NOT DISCOUNT A PREDICTION OF THIS STORM MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ON THE COAST OF OREGON.
Models (#31)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 04:41PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNQT*)

Speaking of models and their performance thus far in this season, right now the only models I want to look at are in the Sports Illustrated swimsuit edition. Oregon not too bad a call either Gerry...
Right On Gerry (#32)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 04:48PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNTX*)

Or Perhaps Walla Walla WA. In Response to Jim F., You are correct, these systems go through cyclic changes during development, and one picture to the next should not be the used as the yardstick, Guilty as charged> The reason I reacted was after reading that NCEP discussion then observing what looked like the same scenario as yesterday, no low-level center and dying convection, leading me to believe that maybe this would continue as an open trough. Reacting once again, the latest sat pix show more evidence of a LLC, so my thinking has been skewed by the models again. I need to remember that development of these systems can take time, and it is prudent not to over react. Thanks for the wisdom.....I should know better. Cheers!!
Cold front (#33)
Posted by: William Location: Crystal River, Fl.
Posted On 04:56PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTUNVQNQQR*)

Does anyone know or should i say,could anyone guess how strong the cold front coming down will be?Will it be deep enough to pull this system towards Florida? I know only the good Lord knows for sure,but does anyone want to take a guess?
Thanks--William
COLD FRONT?? (#34)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 05:03PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRXNQWXNQR*)

WILLIAM,

THIS SEASON, I DO NOT THINK EVEN THE GOOD LORD KNOWS FOR SURE WHAT WILL HAPPEN.
Mid-level circulation (#35)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:08PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

TWC just announced that once again, no low level circulation has been found in the Carib disturbance. Wonder why it is having such as hard time coming down to the surface?

IHS,

Bill
That will change (#36)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 05:20PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNTX*)

By 11pm we will have Gordon. See my neck stretching? CHeers!
GORDON (#37)
Posted by: LONNY Location: MIAMI
Posted On 05:39PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQSX*)

I AGREE WITH YOU STEVE.THE IR LOOPS SHOW IT CHANGING AND TRYING TO DEVELOPE A LOW LEVEL CENTER.WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE....
Comment (#38)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 06:09PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUUNQPQ*)

Satellite imagery may by itself be deceiving. Combined with the ground truth from recon, though, it can make a pretty convincing case for anything.
Satellite imagery and recon are the only methods we have of studying these storms in real time; all models do is either verify or mock what we already know.
conjecture (#39)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 07:55PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

have we seen this before..? every time there is ample, persistent convection with good outflow.. there will be no low level center. whenever there is a vigorous, hearty llc, there will be no convection. this season is beginning to show some.. patterns, shall we say? sure is helping out jj's record this year. im going with steve h. and the rest of the bandwagon, A-Gain. regardless, i dont see how there wont be a gordon out of the carib system before much longer. already ridiculous that there's no defined surface low, with the spiral pattern to the convection. toss up on where it goes, whether it courts the front into florida or charges northwest across the gulf. dont think it has passed any one of ya forum folks' latitude just yet, surely not mine. weekend might get blustery for some of us.
take it easy everyone. we're overdue for a landfall.
New T# (#40)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 08:45PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

351

TPNT KGWC 140008

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SW OF CUBA

B. 13/2315Z (111)

C. 19.3S/3

D. 84.5W/7

E. FIVE/GOES8

F. T1.5/1.5/STT:S0.0 7HRS -13/2315Z-

G. IR/EIR



38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTM. A COMPLETE CNVCTN EVOLUTION HAS TAKEN PLACE

OVER PAST 6 HRS...COMPLEX FORMED WITH VERY COLD TOPS...BUT HAS SINCE

COLLAPSED WITH WARMING TOPS NOTED. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10

SPIRAL. FT BASED ON PT; DT YIELDS 2.0.



It looks like Gordon (#41)
Posted by: David (http://†ÿ€©@hèh)
Posted On 11:07PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRUNTV*)

Check out this:


http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/atl/gmex-ir4-loop.html
Gorden is not near (#42)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 02:42AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (VSNSYNSWNQYW*)

Gorden should not develop if anythng until the pressure falls. There is no closed circulation with this system,,most models don't show much,,but the system will develop in time,,,direction is NNW to NNE in time across florida. intensity could be anywhere from a disturbance up to a strong ts.
keep up he good forcasts JJ...
Too simple??? (#43)
Posted by: Kevin Location: Orlando
Posted On 05:03AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRQYNQWV*)

I know it's been a rough season as far as forecasting these systems goes.....however, I see this one as a no-brainer(much like me)! It is my belief that we will soon see a rapidly intensifying system enter the eastern Gulf and then move NE'ward across Florida. Should be just a memory by the end of the weekend.

You may ask, "Are you a weatherman?" No, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night. ;)

Later,
Kev
Here We Go (#44)
Posted by: Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 05:52AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNQRPNWS*)

As I per my post at 3:47 PM yesterday(see post #21 above)tropical systems go through phases. Guess what, this one is no different, weakening last night before lights out and strengthening as your alarm clock goes off this morning..Miami NWS says it looks better than ever(http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.fxus62.KMFL.html). It appears to me that if this one starts weakening again tonight we have a potential big rainmaker and that’s it..this thing is going to run out of time with the approaching trough and the fact there just isn’t that much sea to go over till it hits land or at least its circ gets disrupted by being close to land(remember Debby as it weakened when passing just north of puerto rico)although explosive development can happen in 12 hours..it is unusual, although the environment is ideal for this one. At minimum, this thing will be a big rain producer for someone in Florida because we will be on the east of a storm approaching from the west. Explosive development is possible..maybe this afternoon or tomorrow!! Be sure to monitor the Florida NWS forecast discussions as it moves closer, this is where the real good analysis kicks in..particuraly with Miami and Key West..The Miami NWS is literally right down the hall from the NHC..I wonder if those guys have a little inside info that maybe the NHC doesn’t always release. Key West NWS was all over Irene in their Friday AM discussion last year while nearly everyone else had it moving up the West Coast, Irene took most South Floridians by surprise 12 hours later, not me. Here is the link to the discussions(http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/fl/discussion.html). Sorry about the long post..I promise it won’t happen again. Wake Up!! The post is over. If Fort Lauderdale gets in the action checkout my webcam at http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/.

Jim

GORDEN DEVELOPING ? (#45)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 07:03AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSSNQWX*)

Hello All,
Well this mourning we have a definit problem in the northwest carribean. Latest satellite pictures show what I believe is a LLC finally but again I'm not 100% yet. Thunderstorms are increasing rapidly just south of Cuba and what I believe is the center has thunderstorms starting to thye southwest as well telling me we may have a fast developing storm at work. I know all this is guess work as of 7am but I believe Florida is in direct line what ever this becomes. When ever they find a LLC I believe this will become a Tropical Storm right away no Depression and a Hurricane within 12-18 hours. I know I'm pushing it but there are too many advantages too this system not too get a little aggressive. The big thing now is where its going. I believe its moving almost due north right now if what I see is accurate a northeast turn towards Florida will develope. Heavy rains are moving over Cuba as we speak and I expect this area to move towards the Florida Keys later today.
Not Much Warning????? (#46)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 07:12AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QVUNQVQNSNQT*)

Seems to me that if this system develops rapidly it could be on top of Florida in no time with little warning. Remember Irene last year. The Florida discussions seem to be sounding a little worried. They will probably jump all over it once the NHC says something more substantial. Things could change quickly today.
This weekend (#47)
Posted by: John Cornelius [CFHC} (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 07:15AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNXY*)

I feel us folks here in FL will have some rain this weekend maybe some heavy winds also. Mark you are pretty close to my prediction. Major hurricane I don't know, Hurricane yes. Everything looks like it is falling in place on this one. We will see.
DEVELOPMENT (#48)
Posted by: LONNY Location: MIAMI
Posted On 08:01AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQXR*)

For some reason this year it is hard to get a system really developing. I really haven't seen a true area known as favorable. This area is the first true favorable area and it still has a hard time. There is no doubt that this is the East Pac year,those poor people,but there is still some time left for something.
Yucatan Channel (#49)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 08:55AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNSS*)

Notice...the NHC is saying it is going into the Yucatun Channel, not Yucatan Peninsula...they also say that it could become a TD or TS today...I completely believe this system could develop rapidly (ala Andrew) and be a complete surprise to all Floridians....
Note (#50)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 09:00AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

I'm going to wait until around 11 to do an update this morning to the main page. But for now, things look interesting. I'm now thinking it won't even go over the Yucatan Peninsula and stay over water as it moves into the Gulf.
Wave (#51)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:10AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNSS*)

I just looked at the models, and almost all agree that this system will hit somewhere on the West Coast of Florida...NWS Forecasters are becoming more concerned, but the morning update has not been done yet, so I don't know their thinking this morning...also here is something else I found:
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT KNGU 140801
REF/A/RMG/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/122205Z SEP 00//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT02 KNGU 122102)//
RMKS/
1. THIS MESSAGE CONTINUES REF A.
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.5N7 85.1W4 TO 23.0N5 87.0W5
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DO NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140215Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 20.5N7 85.0W3. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
IR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE NORTH-
EAST QUADRANT NEAR CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THIS CIRCULATION IS
LOCATED UNDER AN ANTI-CYCLONE AS EVIDENCED BY A THIN CIRRUS SHIELD
OVER THE AREA.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 150801Z5.//

I think once recon gets in there, we will see either TD#11 or TS Gordon...and watches and/or warnings issued in the next day or two for portions of Florida...of course, this is only my humble opinion.
Rain Event at Best; Hurricane at Worst (#52)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 09:48AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQVRNQPY*)

Florida is going to get wet regardless of the strength of the storm. It is pretty obvious that the timeing of the trough will be the deciding factor. I have to wonder how strong the gradient will be with a cold front to our NOrth and a low to our South. It will be a squeeze play for sure.
seasonal activity (#53)
Posted by: Gary Location: Jacksonville
Posted On 10:00AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQURNVUNR*)

What most are forgeting about this season is that we are in the same number range as far as storms go, compared to last year. Floyd was a hurricane bearing down on Fla. at about the same time. So it may seam like a weak season but its little systems like the one in the carr. that will sneak up on ya.

See Ya......
11L Noname (#54)
Posted by: alan Location: orlando
Posted On 10:38AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

The NRL Montery has changed its listing of "Gordon" from 95L invest to 11L Noname. They do that after it's a tropical depression.

little to no change.,... (#55)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 10:39AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXUNQWX*)

Still there is little to no change of the tropical system in the NW caribean,but I do see it slowly getting better organized later today and into tomorrow. I NNW path into the gulf will happen By friday morning and strengthning won't happen much till then.
When the recon does check this out it may be a TS on friday and move N to then NNE and NE by the weekend across fl.
As of now nothing much has changed in this system over the last 3 days.
Interesting (#56)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 10:40AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNTP*)

NRL Monterey has updated it from an investigate to 11l.Noname. I wonder if this means that NHC has decided to call it TD 11 or NRL is jumping the gun.
excuss me,,,,TD has formed (#57)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 10:46AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXUNQWX*)

A TD has formed out of the NW carribean system,,but is weak...any develpment should be slow until later tonight,,especially friday N when a general more strengthning mode will go into affect.
Right now the NHC hasn't declared it offically, but will I'm 100% sure. Since recon data has just gotten back to us.
TD # 11 (#58)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 10:46AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNTNTSNRTQ*)


NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN (AL1100) ON 20000914 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

000914 1200 000915 0000 000915 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 19.9N 87.4W 20.9N 88.5W 21.6N 89.0W

BAMM 19.9N 87.4W 20.9N 88.9W 21.5N 89.9W

A90E 19.9N 87.4W 21.0N 89.0W 21.9N 90.2W

LBAR 19.9N 87.4W 21.1N 88.7W 22.2N 89.6W

SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS



...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

000916 0000 000916 1200 000917 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 22.2N 89.0W 22.9N 88.3W 25.7N 87.0W

BAMM 22.0N 90.4W 22.5N 90.6W 23.7N 91.2W

A90E 22.6N 91.0W 23.1N 91.2W 24.6N 91.5W

LBAR 23.3N 89.7W 23.9N 88.9W 25.4N 85.8W

SHIP 47KTS 58KTS 76KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LAT0 = 19.9N LON0 = 87.4W DIR0 = 305DEG SPD0 = 10KT

LATM12 = 18.9N LONM12 = 85.5W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 10KT

LATM24 = 17.7N LONM24 = 83.9W

WND0 = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = -9NM RD34SE = -9NM RD34SW = -9NM RD34NW = -9NM



NNNN


TD #11 (#59)
Posted by: Tinpusher
Posted On 10:49AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNWV*)

Recon found a small circulation. We now have td 11. As usual Scottsvb jumps the gun with a bad analysis.
Forms (#60)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 10:51AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNTNTSNRTQ*)

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

10 AM CDT THU SEP 14 2000



...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORMS ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA...

TD (#61)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 10:55AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

There definitely is a low level circulation just so-sw of Cozumel on the Yucatan coast, and convection is increasing. There is still a midlevel center south of Cuba. If Monterey is calling it 11L No-name, a decision has apparently been made to upgrade.

It appears to be going a little further west than forecast, but almost all the models move it over or N of the Yucatan, and 72 hr forcasts have it from the s central Gulf moving N to over s central Fl moving NE. One shows it coming over the Fl Big Bend, which is more likely if it moves more to the west initially. It still has organizing to do and has to get away from land. A recon this morning (if I read the report right) did show ese wins about 20 mph just to the NE of the center.

Interesting...Flo now has a distinct eye spot right in the middle of deep convection..and appears to have moved further s and se than forecast. Even tho she is getting sheared, she is moving with the shear and finally has moved away fromt he upwelling. I don't know if the latest recon will capture the upsurge.

getting late for a td 11am advisory, maybe NRL did jump the gun? maybe a 2pm special advisory?

IHS,

Bill
strike probabilities (#62)
Posted by: alan Location: orlando
Posted On 10:58AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

I thought most of the models has the storm moving toward Central Florida or South Florida. I understand with the center being further west that South Florida would not be likely, but the strike probs say nothing about the middle of Florida, but seem to want to put the storm in the central gulf by Sunday.
Probabilities (#63)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 11:11AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNS*)

Initial probabilities indicate a greater risk to central or west Gulf Coast States... Seems like everyone was picking central Fla, however, several earlier models indicated a more westward track..any comments gang?
Center location (#64)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 11:14AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Looking at the latest satpics, looks like the center has already reformed just south of Cozumel. The center is interacting with land and may jump about a bit.

The morewwest and south mvt forecast by TPC causes the probs to be as they are now. They will change as the storm moves. Moving into the central Gulf is the WORST path as there will be more water for the storm to intensify over. looks like it will end over over the north or east Gulf coast in time..I'd say from NO east. If it stays weak, it may end up further west, or shear out entirely. Contrarily, once it starts mooving, it may move fast to the NE or NNE.

What will happen...well, who knows. This is, par for the course this season, and odd little system..but it has potential to become a major threat...if it survives the next 12 hours or so.

IHS,

Bill
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