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CFHC Talkback For News Story #95: Newest Talkback: 04:45 PM 09-15 EDT

Throw a Dart...
09:16 AM EDT - 15 September 2000

2PM Mini Update:
The center of TD#11 appears to be reforming a little to the north and east of the current official position. Also... The wave East of the Caribbean islands is looking very good this afternoon. We may have three tropical systems to track at once very soon. -- The quick pop ups should return later in the day. (See Eric Blake's Atlantic Tropical Weather Center for alternate advisory sources, or many other links that we have.)

Original Update:
The models are less useful than that this morning with TD#11. It really is wide open for speculation right now. We won't know much until tonight probably.

The center is still questionable, and the shearing going on as well as the general pattern around it make for any predictions to be pretty much a guessing game. To reiterate, the entire Gulf coast needs to watch this system. (I'm personally leaning toward the Eastern Gulf including the West coast of Florida, but that is just a dart throw itself.)

The folks in Tampa agree:

THIS WILL BE A VERY TOUGH MARINE FORECAST. EVERYTHING DEPENDS ON THE PROGRESS OF TD 11. IF THE AVN IS RIGHT WE COULD GET SOME 4 TO 5 FOOT SWELLS BY LATE SUNDAY. IF THE CANADIAN MODEL IS RIGHT SEAS COULD GET EVEN LARGER THAN THAT. OF COURSE YOU CAN PRETTY MUCH THROW A DART AT A MAP AND GET ABOUT AS GOOD OF OUTPUT AS THE MODELS THIS MORNING. I WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE...WHICH PRETTY MUCH AGREES WITH THE ETA...EXCEPT FOR TAKING THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. BUT I WILL LEAVE THE DISCLAIMER STATEMENT IN THE FORECAST...BECAUSE THAT IS WHAT THE LOCAL CRS READS AND IN THE SYNOPSIS.

More to come later...

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for TD#11. From Michael Bryson.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

Show All Comments

Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #46 (of 46 total)

Model runs (#1)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 09:19AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNQTY*)

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN (AL1100) ON 20000915 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

000915 1200 000916 0000 000916 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 21.4N 88.7W 21.8N 89.3W 22.3N 89.8W

BAMM 21.4N 88.7W 21.9N 89.4W 22.4N 90.2W

A90E 21.4N 88.7W 22.0N 89.7W 22.5N 90.3W

LBAR 21.4N 88.7W 21.9N 89.4W 22.7N 89.9W

SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS

...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

000917 0000 000917 1200 000918 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 23.3N 90.3W 24.4N 90.6W 26.4N 91.8W

BAMM 23.4N 90.9W 24.3N 91.3W 25.4N 92.5W

A90E 23.3N 90.8W 24.5N 91.0W 26.6N 91.5W

LBAR 23.9N 90.1W 25.3N 89.8W 28.4N 87.3W

SHIP 52KTS 60KTS 72KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LAT0 = 21.4N LON0 = 88.7W DIR0 = 300DEG SPD0 = 6KT

LATM12 = 20.9N LONM12 = 87.2W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 5KT

LATM24 = 20.2N LONM24 = 86.5W

WND0 = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = -9NM RD34SE = -9NM RD34SW = -9NM RD34NW = -9NM

NNNN

TEST RUN ON 98L (#2)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 09:25AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNQTY*)

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (AL9800) ON 20000915 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

000915 1200 000916 0000 000916 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 14.7N 52.3W 14.8N 54.3W 14.7N 56.3W

BAMM 14.7N 52.3W 15.0N 54.9W 15.1N 57.6W

A90E 14.7N 52.3W 15.1N 55.3W 15.4N 58.2W

LBAR 14.7N 52.3W 15.2N 54.8W 15.6N 57.4W

SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS

...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

000917 0000 000917 1200 000918 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 14.7N 58.5W 14.4N 60.8W 13.9N 65.9W

BAMM 15.1N 60.4W 14.9N 63.6W 14.6N 69.9W

A90E 15.6N 61.1W 15.5N 64.0W 16.2N 69.5W

LBAR 15.9N 60.1W 15.9N 63.0W 15.2N 69.3W

SHIP 43KTS 52KTS 72KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LAT0 = 14.7N LON0 = 52.3W DIR0 = 280DEG SPD0 = 15KT

LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 49.1W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 16KT

LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 45.8W

WND0 = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = -9NM RD34SE = -9NM RD34SW = -9NM RD34NW = -9NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

Maybe it is just me.... (#3)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 09:27AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNW*)

But I do not see this -> DIR0 = 300DEG

315-330 IMHO. Heck, I don't know. If 300 isn't the right initial vector, the entire model run is junk. I'll just bite my tounge and wait and see. I think this is the type of stuff that leads to a dart throw.

Gah! (#4)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 09:36AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNTP*)

I was so directed on the motion vector that I didn't even see this -> LAT0 = 21.4N LON0 = 88.7W

Thats just South and West of where they said the system was at 6:00 am EDT. GIGO - Garbage In Garbage Out

Low Level Center (#5)
Posted by: Tinpusher
Posted On 09:48AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNQYX*)

I have been plotting the reports from the recon aircraft as they patrol the north coast of the Yucatan. The reports do indicate that the LLCC is on the coast of the Yucatan in the vicinity of 21.5/88.7 lowest pressure so far has been 1006mb. No west winds from the recon only northwest, however Merida has west winds over land.

LLCC (#6)
Posted by: Tinpusher
Posted On 10:02AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNQYX*)

I stated above that the lowest pressure found was 1006. This was not correct, the lowest was 1005 at 21.5/88.9 with a northeast wind (040) at 14 kts.

WOW (#7)
Posted by: David Location: Brevard/PSJ
Posted On 10:05AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

Things really look like they are flaring up.

http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/atl/gmex-ir4-loop.html

I am not to sure were the circulation is, but it looks like we could get some much needed rain.

Here is a good link to watch the radar approach of this disturbance.

http://www.intellicast.com/LocalWeather/World/UnitedStates/Southeast/Florida/KeyWest/1kmStormWatchLoop/

Can someone tell me? (#8)
Posted by: David
Posted On 10:43AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

Can some one tell me what does the dark grey mean inside of the red on this loop?
http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/float/float-ir4-loop.html

Sorry if it is a foolish question.

td 11 (#9)
Posted by: Doug Spangler Location: sarasota
Posted On 11:04AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQTTNQNTQ*)

this is a very confusing system...llcc onvisual rt. along no.coast, but all moisture is flowing away to nne....that is usually, but not always a good indicator of where the center will go, but not this time? why?

td #11 (#10)
Posted by: Gary Location: Jacksonville
Posted On 11:17AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQURNVUNR*)

the weather channel seems to be contradicting what all of the models are saying, because they were saying that the system would most likely move ne and the models are now saying either central gulf or western gulf. Doesn't that seem odd? But that was at the 8:00 update so I haven't seen the newest one.

Gary (#11)
Posted by: StormHound (http://www.stormhound.homestead.com) Location: O-Town
Posted On 11:26AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QRNSUNQWNR*)

I would agree with the NE path. The models are a whole lot of use right now. The big problem is defining where the center is/will be. I'm still favoring a center which is more NE of where the NHC has it officially. That really would change all of the model paths to the NE. Of course, as Mike said, it is pretty much a dart throw. This system will be hard to predict until we have a definite LLCC.

11am forecast positions from NHC..... (#12)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 11:26AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNTT*)

seem reasonable with the recon data. My gut tells me that it may be left of the actual track that TD 11 will take. I'm not sure it is off that much, though. Probably within the average forecast error. TD 11 has a lot of maturing to do now that it is getting free of the Yucatan. Still would not discout the Tampa area in the long term. These sheared systems that we have had this year are real buggers. I can't see the llcc where recon says it is. It is very diffuse. And, of course, reformation under the mid-level is still possible, even according to NHC. Should be an interesting six hours until the next update. I retract my earlier comment about the lat/lon being off for the models. Still suspect on the initial motion. But that also explains my feeling of the track being to the right of the forecasted track.

Tech Note (#13)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 11:39AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

The pop up adviories use the same system that noaa's IWIN does, which are having problems. So they may be disabled for a bit. It should show up again in not too long a time. Storm Spotlight uses an alternate method, and provides alternate sites, as well as the links page (ATWC is really good for this, BTW)

11AM is an interesting update. I think the LLCC is off the coast right now (just off it), and the next 6 hours will indeed be interesting. Unfortunately I'll be out of town until Late Sunday night after 4PM or so. (Between the boonies and the middle of nowhere in the Tennessee mountains) So, John will take over the entire site until Sunday morning, when he himself will be going to San Antonio. I'll try to get quick access to the page while I'm gone, but not guarantees. The automated stuff should continue to work without my input, though.

This System... (#14)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:51AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQYS*)

is killing me. IF it goes to the WNW like they are saying, how could it possibly survive the shear they are talking about? No way. I think (it's hard to tell at the moment) that it is trying to reform to the east, under the midlevel circulation. And, NHC is now saying the same thing basically...they don't know anymore than we do. I have noticed, however, that the local forecasters are not so quick now to say it is no threat whatsoever to florida. As a matter of fact, the 11:00 news wxman said we need to keep a close eye on this system, as it could redevelop east of where they say it is...very complicated forecast, indeed.

To Jim Mogle (#15)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:55AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQYS*)

Jim, in your earlier post you said it would be to left of the projected path, but at the end you said to the right...did you mean right when you said left? LOL!!! Did I confuse you or am I confused? Colleen

That was confusing. (#16)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 12:33PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNSQ*)

I kind of transposed the way I was looking at it. I was saying, in a bad way, that the forecast track was to the left of what I thought the actual track was going to be. IE, I think it will be to the right of the forecast path. I really could have written that better. I guess I was just thinking about lunch. :)

Interaction between llcc and mid-level? (#17)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 12:50PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNTT*)

I've been looking at the vis sat loop. Almost looks like there is a dance going on with the llcc and the mid-level circulation. Llcc looks like it is not moving much or moving back towards the mid-level flow slightly. Whereas, the mid-level flow looks like it is moving to meet up with the llcc. Probably just seeing things, though.

Gotcha, Jim! (#18)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 12:51PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNUQ*)

That's what I thought you were saying...lunch is very important (especially to the models, which seem to always be out to lunch!!!)....NOW all the forecasters in Tampa are telling us things could change over the weekend, with Channel 10 being the most concerned, and that we need to keep a close eye on this "thing"...Colleen

EXPLOSION IN YUCATAN CHANNEL??? (#19)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 12:58PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QVUNQVQNSNQS*)

What is going on here in the Yucatan Channel

OTHER WAVE (#20)
Posted by: GREG
Posted On 01:11PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNRRWNSP*)

ANY THOUGHTS ON THE WAVE IN CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN PRETTY RESILIENT. IF IT STAYS UNDER 20N WINDS TO EAST OF THE ISLANDS DON'T LOOK ALL THAT BAD AT THE MOMENT. PUERTO RICO - WEST I'M NOT SO SURE BUT THAT'S DAYS AWAY.

TWC??? (#21)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 01:12PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQTNQUNQSX*)

HAS ANYONE HEARD WHAT TWC SAID IN THE LAST TROP UPDATE??

Gerry (#22)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:17PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNUQ*)

No, have you? If you have, share it with us....please....Colleen

East of the Islands (#23)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 01:19PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

NHC says a tropical depression may be developing east of the Lesser Antilles.

Explosion! (#24)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:20PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNUQ*)

Wow...-100 degrees Celcius cloud tops!!!! Anyone have an opinion on whether this thing could form into a llcc? also, on vis sat imagery, it looks like the two centers are trying to come together..anyone else notice that? Colleen

Couple of Thoughts (#25)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 01:35PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

The cloud tops to the east of the Yucatan almost look as if they are on a trough axis of some kind--note the elongated look in the satellite photos. I'm not sure what exactly may be responsible, but I don't think that at this time it is a reflection of a strengthening system. I am having a hard time picking out the original LLCC and wonder if it could be reforming under the MLCC, but at any rate, any intesification with this system looks to be slow IMHO.

New Llcc? (#26)
Posted by: William Location: Crystal River, Fl.
Posted On 01:43PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTUNVQNQYS*)

TWC --Rich johnson just said the Llcc isnt moving much at all,if any. He talked more about a new Llcc trying to form under mid level cir.& on the satellite view it sure looks like it to me!!!
Boy if thats true--look out eastern part of the Gulf especially Florida!!!

New LLCC (#27)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:48PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNVY*)

I think it is very clear now on visible sat pix that this is definitely what is happening...and fast. I will interested in seeing what the good Dr. has to say at 1:50pm.

td11 (#28)
Posted by: Doug Spangler Location: sarasota
Posted On 01:48PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQTTNQNTQ*)

Look at the w.v.loop...what I see here is an upper low digging in over Yucatan from nw to se which will obviously interdict any llcc development there...the posted llcc is obviously exposed and west of midlevel and convection..isn't the blow up an interaction of the midlevel and this upper air feature which nobody seems to be factoring into equation?...by the way it was there yesterday too, only in a trough, which is what inhanced the sw-ne shear over the feature...

TWD 2:05 STILL OVER LAND (#29)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 01:51PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNTNTSNRPW*)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN CENTER NEAR 21.6N 88.9W AT 15/1500 UTC

MOVING NW 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB. SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORY

UNDER AFOS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DATA

FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...SURFACE AND UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS

FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CENTER OF THE

DEPRESSION IS STILL OVER LAND BUT READY TO MOVE OFFSHORE JUST TO THE

NORTHEAST OF MERIDA. ONCE OFFSHORE...OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF

THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY. CURRENTLY...

NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED JUST EAST OF CENTER FROM 20N-22N

BETWEEN 85W-87W. BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS FLOW ANTICYCLONICALLY

AWAY FROM SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO

AND ACROSS THE STATE OF FLORIDA FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 76W-88W.

TROPICAL UPDATE (#30)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 02:02PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSSNWW*)

Hello All,
The TWC update stated that TD#11 is reforming to the NE of the previous position. Satellite shows this as well. Over the past couple of hours I have had bands of rain move in from the gulf. As the rains increased winds increased to 20-25 mph and as the rain ended winds died so even though its still far away I believe the outer moisture is getting into my area. I had 1.65" in about 75 minutes. The next 12 hours are going to be fun. Any one pulling there hair out yet!!

My interpretation from Dr. Lyons.... (#31)
Posted by: Teresa Location: Mobile, AL
Posted On 02:10PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNTNRUSNXX*)

He said the activity to the east of the Yucantan is just rain. The LLCC still exist and will continue to move NW as will the rest of the showers. I didn't hear the Dr say anything about reforming. The flare up to me is TD is about to intensify.

Doug (#32)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:14PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNVY*)

Great comments...only, I don't understand what you are saying..lol...could you state that in laymen's terms? Thanks

also: Kristinn Dodd just mentioned that they have crews stationed in Galveston, Mobile (I think) and Tampa...my question is this: where is Jim Cantore...if he's in Tampa, it's a sure bet that't where it will come...wherever Jim goes, the storm follows!!!

Colleen

Teresa (#33)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:16PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNVY*)

He did say their thinking is that the LLCC is trying to reform...they have said that now since 1:30pm....maybe you just missed it...Colleen

I agree with Colleen!! (#34)
Posted by: Teresa Location: Mobile, AL
Posted On 02:17PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNTNRUSNXY*)

You hit the button. Forget looking at sat. loops, start looking for Jim!!

LLC (#35)
Posted by: mike Location: Clearwater Beach
Posted On 02:23PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVQNRTPNRPS*)

It is very clear to me that the LLC is moving more towards the midlevel than the mid level is moving towards the LLc. Check your coordinates over last 24 hours.

Rain/Rain (#36)
Posted by: mike Location: Clearwater Beach
Posted On 02:32PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVQNRTPNRPS*)

Even if this thing doesn't develop it sure looks like the West Coast of florida will get hammered with rain. We are in a rainfall deficit but I would hate to see how much this thing would dump, especially with how slow it is moving. GOT FLOOD INSURANCE?

SHEAR (#37)
Posted by: LONNY Location: HOLLYWOOD
Posted On 02:37PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNRQR*)

The reason it became so elongated is because of upper level shear out of the Southwest. If it survives long enough and enters the warm Gulf the shear is suppose to subside and then it could explode. In the mean time, I think we are going to see an up and down system. I remember some storms having 70mph winds without a complete closed low due to shearing. This could happen to the future Gordon.Until the upper low moves out it won't get it's act together. Not meaning it won't strengthen, just won't have a complete closed surface low.

Funnel Cloud (#38)
Posted by: mike Location: Clearwater Beach
Posted On 02:44PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVQNRTPNRPS*)

FYI. Just saw a banner running on the TWC that said a funnel cloud was spotted over St.Petersburg/Clearwater airport. I checked satellite and it looks like a feeder band that caused it. Even if this storm doesn't intensify everbody needs to be careful for the potential for lots of rain and possible tornados.

TWC recognizes........ (#39)
Posted by: Teresa Location: Mobile, AL
Posted On 03:00PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNTNRUSNXX*)

a new LLC. Finally!! We all know it will become a hurricane, BUT the big question, where is soon to be announced Gordon going?

Tampa Bay Discussion (#40)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 03:04PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

This is very interesting...

VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND...ESP CONSIDERING SATL
EVOLUTION OF TD 11 DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS COMBINED WITH THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS...WHICH ALL ARE SHOWING MORE OF AN EASTWARD COMPONENT TO
THE MOTION OF THE SYSTEM.

It is starting to look like Florida is back in the crosshairs, although this discussion goes on to mention that the system may get sheared out of existence and just bring rainfall to Florida (TBW already predicting up to 4" by Saturday night).

Clyde

Convertion near the Center (#41)
Posted by: Tom
Posted On 03:28PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Looking at the latest IR, it looks like a deep ball of convertion is starting to fire up at the tip of the Yucantan close to where I think the center is re-forming.

Agreed (#42)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 03:41PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

Looked at the NRL site and it does look like a new center is forming off the NE tip of the Yucatan. I don't have any idea how this affects the forecast track or intensity possibilities but as a Florida resident I am definitely becoming more interested in this system. I believe we may have Gordon at 5:00 as well.

Jim Cantore is in Galveston, TX (#43)
Posted by: Tinpusher
Posted On 04:08PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNWV*)

nm

Shouldn't be in Galveston (#44)
Posted by: LNoel
Posted On 04:31PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNRPT*)

SHould have someone in New ORelans, Pensacola, and Tampa too!!!

Re: Jim Cantore (#45)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:32PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQXR*)

Then I say: watch out Texas!!! Who's in Tampa, do you know? Thanks for answering my question!!!

Colleen

LNoel (#46)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:45PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQXR*)

fyi...they have crews in New Orleans and Tampa..but not Pensacola....

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