CFHC Talkback For News Story #92:
Newest Talkback: 11:14 AM 09-14 EDT

Florence and West Caribbean
11:42 AM EDT - 13 September 2000

Today not much has changed. Florence is still a minimal hurricane spinning of the coast, and still is expected to move away from us eventually.

Hurricane Hunter aircraft failed to find a Low Level Circulation Center in the West Caribbean, but found a fairly impressive Mid-Level one. I expect it still to form within the next day or two. If it forms, things become interesting for the Gulf. Including Florida. However, until something really does develop, speculation of that sort is counter productive. Still, this system should be watched closely.

The system in the Central Atlantic still has a few days yet to develop or not.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)


Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

Show All Comments | Show Next 21 Comments | Show Previous 39 Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #23 - #43 (of 64 total)
Try This (#23)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:01PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQXQ*)

Don't know if it will work or not, never did it before:

http://www.met.fsu.edu

hope that helps!!!
Models (#24)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 04:04PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNYU*)

If I read the NCEP Outlook right NO Global model forms a Tropical system only an open Trough until later, in the gulf
Colleen (#25)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 04:06PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNYU*)

http://www.met.fsu.edu/Data/archive/weather/HURR/
Just a Note (#26)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 04:07PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

I messed around with the source code to cfhcnews today and added automated link highlighting. So if someone drops a link in a comment, it actually shows as a link that you can click on.

Hopefully it won't cause too many problems.
Thanks Gary!!! (#27)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:09PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQXQ*)

Thanks, Gary....helpful as always!!!

here is what Key West is saying about the system in the Caribbean:
EXPECTED TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF DISTURBANCE IN CARIBBEAN WILL AGAIN DRIVE THE FORECAST. SHORT RANGE MODELS MOVE IT ACROSS THE YUCATAN TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHILE HPC GUIDANCE MOVES IT THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF. FORECAST WILL SHOW A GENERAL INCREASED RAIN CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD CONSISTENT WITH FURTHER
EAST FORECAST OF HPC.

COASTAL FORECAST WILL HAVE INCREASING WINDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
MODELS...ALLOWING FOR OFFICIAL "TRACK" FORECAST...BUT REMAINING
BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

Am I correct in assuming that his HPC is the Canadian model that they are all talking about?


lastest sat loop (#28)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 04:15PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNQR*)

Looking at the latest sat loop from NRL the system still appears to be moving in a general northwest motion, somewhere between WNW and NW... There is also a pretty good feederband of thunderstorms developing to the northeast side of the center of rotation. I would be very suprised if they do not have minimum TS winds in this section of thunderstorm activity at this time.

http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/tc_home
Colleen (#29)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 04:32PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNYU*)

I think they are referring to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
GORDON???????? (#30)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 04:33PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRXNQWXNQR*)

THE LATEST SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW STRONG CONVECTION IN NORTHERN QUADRANTS AND SIGNS OF BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS, WHICH INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZATION, EVEN THOUGH IT FAILED TO LOOK THAT WAY ALL DAY. THIS MAY BE TEMPORARY, THOUGH IT IS MOVING IN THE DIRECTION THAT THE MODELS HAVE PREDITICTED IT TO GO. FURTHER MORE, THE MODELS ALL SEASON HAVE HAD LITTLE CREDIBILITY IN THE PREDICITION OF ANY STORM WITHIN A 12 HOUR WINDOW. HENCE, I WOULD NOT DISCOUNT A PREDICTION OF THIS STORM MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ON THE COAST OF OREGON.
Models (#31)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 04:41PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNQT*)

Speaking of models and their performance thus far in this season, right now the only models I want to look at are in the Sports Illustrated swimsuit edition. Oregon not too bad a call either Gerry...
Right On Gerry (#32)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 04:48PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNTX*)

Or Perhaps Walla Walla WA. In Response to Jim F., You are correct, these systems go through cyclic changes during development, and one picture to the next should not be the used as the yardstick, Guilty as charged> The reason I reacted was after reading that NCEP discussion then observing what looked like the same scenario as yesterday, no low-level center and dying convection, leading me to believe that maybe this would continue as an open trough. Reacting once again, the latest sat pix show more evidence of a LLC, so my thinking has been skewed by the models again. I need to remember that development of these systems can take time, and it is prudent not to over react. Thanks for the wisdom.....I should know better. Cheers!!
Cold front (#33)
Posted by: William Location: Crystal River, Fl.
Posted On 04:56PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTUNVQNQQR*)

Does anyone know or should i say,could anyone guess how strong the cold front coming down will be?Will it be deep enough to pull this system towards Florida? I know only the good Lord knows for sure,but does anyone want to take a guess?
Thanks--William
COLD FRONT?? (#34)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 05:03PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRXNQWXNQR*)

WILLIAM,

THIS SEASON, I DO NOT THINK EVEN THE GOOD LORD KNOWS FOR SURE WHAT WILL HAPPEN.
Mid-level circulation (#35)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:08PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

TWC just announced that once again, no low level circulation has been found in the Carib disturbance. Wonder why it is having such as hard time coming down to the surface?

IHS,

Bill
That will change (#36)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 05:20PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNTX*)

By 11pm we will have Gordon. See my neck stretching? CHeers!
GORDON (#37)
Posted by: LONNY Location: MIAMI
Posted On 05:39PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQSX*)

I AGREE WITH YOU STEVE.THE IR LOOPS SHOW IT CHANGING AND TRYING TO DEVELOPE A LOW LEVEL CENTER.WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE....
Comment (#38)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 06:09PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUUNQPQ*)

Satellite imagery may by itself be deceiving. Combined with the ground truth from recon, though, it can make a pretty convincing case for anything.
Satellite imagery and recon are the only methods we have of studying these storms in real time; all models do is either verify or mock what we already know.
conjecture (#39)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 07:55PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

have we seen this before..? every time there is ample, persistent convection with good outflow.. there will be no low level center. whenever there is a vigorous, hearty llc, there will be no convection. this season is beginning to show some.. patterns, shall we say? sure is helping out jj's record this year. im going with steve h. and the rest of the bandwagon, A-Gain. regardless, i dont see how there wont be a gordon out of the carib system before much longer. already ridiculous that there's no defined surface low, with the spiral pattern to the convection. toss up on where it goes, whether it courts the front into florida or charges northwest across the gulf. dont think it has passed any one of ya forum folks' latitude just yet, surely not mine. weekend might get blustery for some of us.
take it easy everyone. we're overdue for a landfall.
New T# (#40)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 08:45PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

351

TPNT KGWC 140008

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SW OF CUBA

B. 13/2315Z (111)

C. 19.3S/3

D. 84.5W/7

E. FIVE/GOES8

F. T1.5/1.5/STT:S0.0 7HRS -13/2315Z-

G. IR/EIR



38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTM. A COMPLETE CNVCTN EVOLUTION HAS TAKEN PLACE

OVER PAST 6 HRS...COMPLEX FORMED WITH VERY COLD TOPS...BUT HAS SINCE

COLLAPSED WITH WARMING TOPS NOTED. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10

SPIRAL. FT BASED ON PT; DT YIELDS 2.0.



It looks like Gordon (#41)
Posted by: David (http://†ÿ€©@hèh)
Posted On 11:07PM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRUNTV*)

Check out this:


http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/atl/gmex-ir4-loop.html
Gorden is not near (#42)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 02:42AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (VSNSYNSWNQYW*)

Gorden should not develop if anythng until the pressure falls. There is no closed circulation with this system,,most models don't show much,,but the system will develop in time,,,direction is NNW to NNE in time across florida. intensity could be anywhere from a disturbance up to a strong ts.
keep up he good forcasts JJ...
Too simple??? (#43)
Posted by: Kevin Location: Orlando
Posted On 05:03AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRQYNQWV*)

I know it's been a rough season as far as forecasting these systems goes.....however, I see this one as a no-brainer(much like me)! It is my belief that we will soon see a rapidly intensifying system enter the eastern Gulf and then move NE'ward across Florida. Should be just a memory by the end of the weekend.

You may ask, "Are you a weatherman?" No, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night. ;)

Later,
Kev
Here We Go (#44)
Posted by: Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 05:52AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNQRPNWS*)

As I per my post at 3:47 PM yesterday(see post #21 above)tropical systems go through phases. Guess what, this one is no different, weakening last night before lights out and strengthening as your alarm clock goes off this morning..Miami NWS says it looks better than ever(http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.fxus62.KMFL.html). It appears to me that if this one starts weakening again tonight we have a potential big rainmaker and that’s it..this thing is going to run out of time with the approaching trough and the fact there just isn’t that much sea to go over till it hits land or at least its circ gets disrupted by being close to land(remember Debby as it weakened when passing just north of puerto rico)although explosive development can happen in 12 hours..it is unusual, although the environment is ideal for this one. At minimum, this thing will be a big rain producer for someone in Florida because we will be on the east of a storm approaching from the west. Explosive development is possible..maybe this afternoon or tomorrow!! Be sure to monitor the Florida NWS forecast discussions as it moves closer, this is where the real good analysis kicks in..particuraly with Miami and Key West..The Miami NWS is literally right down the hall from the NHC..I wonder if those guys have a little inside info that maybe the NHC doesn’t always release. Key West NWS was all over Irene in their Friday AM discussion last year while nearly everyone else had it moving up the West Coast, Irene took most South Floridians by surprise 12 hours later, not me. Here is the link to the discussions(http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/fl/discussion.html). Sorry about the long post..I promise it won’t happen again. Wake Up!! The post is over. If Fort Lauderdale gets in the action checkout my webcam at http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/.

Jim

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