CFHC Talkback For News Story #92:
Newest Talkback: 11:14 AM 09-14 EDT

Florence and West Caribbean
11:42 AM EDT - 13 September 2000

Today not much has changed. Florence is still a minimal hurricane spinning of the coast, and still is expected to move away from us eventually.

Hurricane Hunter aircraft failed to find a Low Level Circulation Center in the West Caribbean, but found a fairly impressive Mid-Level one. I expect it still to form within the next day or two. If it forms, things become interesting for the Gulf. Including Florida. However, until something really does develop, speculation of that sort is counter productive. Still, this system should be watched closely.

The system in the Central Atlantic still has a few days yet to develop or not.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)


Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #44 - #64 (of 64 total)
Here We Go (#44)
Posted by: Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 05:52AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNQRPNWS*)

As I per my post at 3:47 PM yesterday(see post #21 above)tropical systems go through phases. Guess what, this one is no different, weakening last night before lights out and strengthening as your alarm clock goes off this morning..Miami NWS says it looks better than ever(http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.fxus62.KMFL.html). It appears to me that if this one starts weakening again tonight we have a potential big rainmaker and that’s it..this thing is going to run out of time with the approaching trough and the fact there just isn’t that much sea to go over till it hits land or at least its circ gets disrupted by being close to land(remember Debby as it weakened when passing just north of puerto rico)although explosive development can happen in 12 hours..it is unusual, although the environment is ideal for this one. At minimum, this thing will be a big rain producer for someone in Florida because we will be on the east of a storm approaching from the west. Explosive development is possible..maybe this afternoon or tomorrow!! Be sure to monitor the Florida NWS forecast discussions as it moves closer, this is where the real good analysis kicks in..particuraly with Miami and Key West..The Miami NWS is literally right down the hall from the NHC..I wonder if those guys have a little inside info that maybe the NHC doesn’t always release. Key West NWS was all over Irene in their Friday AM discussion last year while nearly everyone else had it moving up the West Coast, Irene took most South Floridians by surprise 12 hours later, not me. Here is the link to the discussions(http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/fl/discussion.html). Sorry about the long post..I promise it won’t happen again. Wake Up!! The post is over. If Fort Lauderdale gets in the action checkout my webcam at http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/.

Jim

GORDEN DEVELOPING ? (#45)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 07:03AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSSNQWX*)

Hello All,
Well this mourning we have a definit problem in the northwest carribean. Latest satellite pictures show what I believe is a LLC finally but again I'm not 100% yet. Thunderstorms are increasing rapidly just south of Cuba and what I believe is the center has thunderstorms starting to thye southwest as well telling me we may have a fast developing storm at work. I know all this is guess work as of 7am but I believe Florida is in direct line what ever this becomes. When ever they find a LLC I believe this will become a Tropical Storm right away no Depression and a Hurricane within 12-18 hours. I know I'm pushing it but there are too many advantages too this system not too get a little aggressive. The big thing now is where its going. I believe its moving almost due north right now if what I see is accurate a northeast turn towards Florida will develope. Heavy rains are moving over Cuba as we speak and I expect this area to move towards the Florida Keys later today.
Not Much Warning????? (#46)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 07:12AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QVUNQVQNSNQT*)

Seems to me that if this system develops rapidly it could be on top of Florida in no time with little warning. Remember Irene last year. The Florida discussions seem to be sounding a little worried. They will probably jump all over it once the NHC says something more substantial. Things could change quickly today.
This weekend (#47)
Posted by: John Cornelius [CFHC} (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 07:15AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNXY*)

I feel us folks here in FL will have some rain this weekend maybe some heavy winds also. Mark you are pretty close to my prediction. Major hurricane I don't know, Hurricane yes. Everything looks like it is falling in place on this one. We will see.
DEVELOPMENT (#48)
Posted by: LONNY Location: MIAMI
Posted On 08:01AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQXR*)

For some reason this year it is hard to get a system really developing. I really haven't seen a true area known as favorable. This area is the first true favorable area and it still has a hard time. There is no doubt that this is the East Pac year,those poor people,but there is still some time left for something.
Yucatan Channel (#49)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 08:55AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNSS*)

Notice...the NHC is saying it is going into the Yucatun Channel, not Yucatan Peninsula...they also say that it could become a TD or TS today...I completely believe this system could develop rapidly (ala Andrew) and be a complete surprise to all Floridians....
Note (#50)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 09:00AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

I'm going to wait until around 11 to do an update this morning to the main page. But for now, things look interesting. I'm now thinking it won't even go over the Yucatan Peninsula and stay over water as it moves into the Gulf.
Wave (#51)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:10AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNSS*)

I just looked at the models, and almost all agree that this system will hit somewhere on the West Coast of Florida...NWS Forecasters are becoming more concerned, but the morning update has not been done yet, so I don't know their thinking this morning...also here is something else I found:
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT KNGU 140801
REF/A/RMG/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/122205Z SEP 00//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT02 KNGU 122102)//
RMKS/
1. THIS MESSAGE CONTINUES REF A.
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.5N7 85.1W4 TO 23.0N5 87.0W5
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DO NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140215Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 20.5N7 85.0W3. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
IR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE NORTH-
EAST QUADRANT NEAR CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THIS CIRCULATION IS
LOCATED UNDER AN ANTI-CYCLONE AS EVIDENCED BY A THIN CIRRUS SHIELD
OVER THE AREA.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 150801Z5.//

I think once recon gets in there, we will see either TD#11 or TS Gordon...and watches and/or warnings issued in the next day or two for portions of Florida...of course, this is only my humble opinion.
Rain Event at Best; Hurricane at Worst (#52)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 09:48AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQVRNQPY*)

Florida is going to get wet regardless of the strength of the storm. It is pretty obvious that the timeing of the trough will be the deciding factor. I have to wonder how strong the gradient will be with a cold front to our NOrth and a low to our South. It will be a squeeze play for sure.
seasonal activity (#53)
Posted by: Gary Location: Jacksonville
Posted On 10:00AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQURNVUNR*)

What most are forgeting about this season is that we are in the same number range as far as storms go, compared to last year. Floyd was a hurricane bearing down on Fla. at about the same time. So it may seam like a weak season but its little systems like the one in the carr. that will sneak up on ya.

See Ya......
11L Noname (#54)
Posted by: alan Location: orlando
Posted On 10:38AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

The NRL Montery has changed its listing of "Gordon" from 95L invest to 11L Noname. They do that after it's a tropical depression.

little to no change.,... (#55)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 10:39AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXUNQWX*)

Still there is little to no change of the tropical system in the NW caribean,but I do see it slowly getting better organized later today and into tomorrow. I NNW path into the gulf will happen By friday morning and strengthning won't happen much till then.
When the recon does check this out it may be a TS on friday and move N to then NNE and NE by the weekend across fl.
As of now nothing much has changed in this system over the last 3 days.
Interesting (#56)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 10:40AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNTP*)

NRL Monterey has updated it from an investigate to 11l.Noname. I wonder if this means that NHC has decided to call it TD 11 or NRL is jumping the gun.
excuss me,,,,TD has formed (#57)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 10:46AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXUNQWX*)

A TD has formed out of the NW carribean system,,but is weak...any develpment should be slow until later tonight,,especially friday N when a general more strengthning mode will go into affect.
Right now the NHC hasn't declared it offically, but will I'm 100% sure. Since recon data has just gotten back to us.
TD # 11 (#58)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 10:46AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNTNTSNRTQ*)


NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN (AL1100) ON 20000914 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

000914 1200 000915 0000 000915 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 19.9N 87.4W 20.9N 88.5W 21.6N 89.0W

BAMM 19.9N 87.4W 20.9N 88.9W 21.5N 89.9W

A90E 19.9N 87.4W 21.0N 89.0W 21.9N 90.2W

LBAR 19.9N 87.4W 21.1N 88.7W 22.2N 89.6W

SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS



...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

000916 0000 000916 1200 000917 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 22.2N 89.0W 22.9N 88.3W 25.7N 87.0W

BAMM 22.0N 90.4W 22.5N 90.6W 23.7N 91.2W

A90E 22.6N 91.0W 23.1N 91.2W 24.6N 91.5W

LBAR 23.3N 89.7W 23.9N 88.9W 25.4N 85.8W

SHIP 47KTS 58KTS 76KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LAT0 = 19.9N LON0 = 87.4W DIR0 = 305DEG SPD0 = 10KT

LATM12 = 18.9N LONM12 = 85.5W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 10KT

LATM24 = 17.7N LONM24 = 83.9W

WND0 = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = -9NM RD34SE = -9NM RD34SW = -9NM RD34NW = -9NM



NNNN


TD #11 (#59)
Posted by: Tinpusher
Posted On 10:49AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNWV*)

Recon found a small circulation. We now have td 11. As usual Scottsvb jumps the gun with a bad analysis.
Forms (#60)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 10:51AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNTNTSNRTQ*)

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

10 AM CDT THU SEP 14 2000



...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORMS ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA...

TD (#61)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 10:55AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

There definitely is a low level circulation just so-sw of Cozumel on the Yucatan coast, and convection is increasing. There is still a midlevel center south of Cuba. If Monterey is calling it 11L No-name, a decision has apparently been made to upgrade.

It appears to be going a little further west than forecast, but almost all the models move it over or N of the Yucatan, and 72 hr forcasts have it from the s central Gulf moving N to over s central Fl moving NE. One shows it coming over the Fl Big Bend, which is more likely if it moves more to the west initially. It still has organizing to do and has to get away from land. A recon this morning (if I read the report right) did show ese wins about 20 mph just to the NE of the center.

Interesting...Flo now has a distinct eye spot right in the middle of deep convection..and appears to have moved further s and se than forecast. Even tho she is getting sheared, she is moving with the shear and finally has moved away fromt he upwelling. I don't know if the latest recon will capture the upsurge.

getting late for a td 11am advisory, maybe NRL did jump the gun? maybe a 2pm special advisory?

IHS,

Bill
strike probabilities (#62)
Posted by: alan Location: orlando
Posted On 10:58AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

I thought most of the models has the storm moving toward Central Florida or South Florida. I understand with the center being further west that South Florida would not be likely, but the strike probs say nothing about the middle of Florida, but seem to want to put the storm in the central gulf by Sunday.
Probabilities (#63)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 11:11AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNS*)

Initial probabilities indicate a greater risk to central or west Gulf Coast States... Seems like everyone was picking central Fla, however, several earlier models indicated a more westward track..any comments gang?
Center location (#64)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 11:14AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Looking at the latest satpics, looks like the center has already reformed just south of Cozumel. The center is interacting with land and may jump about a bit.

The morewwest and south mvt forecast by TPC causes the probs to be as they are now. They will change as the storm moves. Moving into the central Gulf is the WORST path as there will be more water for the storm to intensify over. looks like it will end over over the north or east Gulf coast in time..I'd say from NO east. If it stays weak, it may end up further west, or shear out entirely. Contrarily, once it starts mooving, it may move fast to the NE or NNE.

What will happen...well, who knows. This is, par for the course this season, and odd little system..but it has potential to become a major threat...if it survives the next 12 hours or so.

IHS,

Bill
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